New data from global consulting firm McKinsey shows rapid growth in renewables and storage, but warns that investment shortfalls and policy headwinds are putting key 2030 climate milestones at risk.
The global energy transition has reached a turning point, according to new analysis from McKinsey & Company. Its expanded “Tracking the energy transition: where are we now?” report finds record growth in renewables, storage, and electric vehicles, yet less than 15 percent of the low-emissions technologies needed for Paris-aligned 2050 targets have been deployed globally. Despite a 15 percent rise in global renewables capacity (up 585 GW) and a 25 percent increase in EV sales, project pipelines are struggling to deliver operational assets quickly enough.
Sector growth outpaces job creation in global renewables
China’s surge in solar stands out. Since 2023, the country has added about 300 GW of PV capacity, already more than doubling its 2030 target. Falling costs and rapid buildout have cemented solar PV as the transition’s success story. Europe and the US have yet to announce enough capacity for their own 2030 solar goals, but McKinsey suggests these targets remain achievable if policy and permitting keep pace.
“Progress is highly uneven across technologies and regions,” says Diego Hernandez Diaz, McKinsey partner and report co-author. “Solar and batteries are accelerating, while delays and cancellations are holding back wind and other technologies. Stakeholders need to pinpoint bottlenecks and act quickly.”
Offshore progress stalls as gaps persist
Offshore wind has lagged, especially in Europe and the US. All three major regions are expected to miss their 2030 offshore wind targets, with Europe needing an additional 81 GW of projects. The pipeline for battery energy storage systems (BESS) is growing fast, but remains insufficient: Europe faces a shortfall of over 220 GW in BESS projects needed by 2030, with similar gaps in the US and China. “BESS remains the sector’s biggest question mark,” says Hernandez Diaz. “On the upside, storage can move from planning to operation much faster than nuclear or gas with CCS, and the economics are already attractive for utilities and households pairing batteries with solar.”
How smart energy systems keep Europe’s industry competitive
Despite strong investment, the analysis points to a persistent problem: the gap between announced projects and those reaching financial close and construction. Only projects with committed funding will count toward 2030 targets, underlining the need for robust policy, clear incentives and streamlined grid connections. “Achieving net zero will take more than scaling a few technologies in select regions,” Hernandez Diaz concludes. “But these progress snapshots are a powerful indicator of whether the world is on track or falling behind.” (TF)
