IRENA has set out a substantially redrawn route to a 1.5°C-compatible energy system, placing electrification at the heart of the next phase of the transition and lifting the share of electricity in global final energy consumption from around 23% today to 35% by 2035 and above 50% by 2050. The revised World Energy Transition Outlook, prepared in support of the COP30 Brazilian Presidency’s Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels, pushes past capacity and presents the shift as systemic redesign.
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According to the report, global installed renewable power capacity is set to reach roughly 18.4 TW by 2035 and 38.2 TW by 2050, against fossil fuels that still supplied more than 80% of primary energy in 2023. Battery storage is projected to rise from 416 GW in 2025 to 2,530 GW by 2035 and 6,859 GW by 2050, while daily system flexibility needs climb from 7% in 2019 to 13% by 2035 and 30% by mid-century. Sustainable fuels, advanced under Brazil’s Belém 4x commitment, retain a role in sectors that resist direct electrification, notably aviation, shipping, cement and steel.
The grid bottleneck
The key figure for investors is in the grid. Annual investment in transmission and distribution must rise from USD 0.5 trillion in 2025 to around USD 1 trillion across 2026–2035 and USD 1.2 trillion thereafter, reaching USD 29 trillion cumulatively by 2050. IRENA notes that some 2,500 GW of projects, mostly wind, solar and storage, are already queuing for grid connection globally, and warns that without proportional network investment, electrification risks curtailment, congestion and reliability problems. As the report puts it, the transition is “not simply about adding more clean energy capacity, important as that is; it is also about redesigning energy systems to be more resilient, efficient, secure and inclusive.”
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Regional pathways diverge sharply. The EU-27 is projected to reach 64% electrification by 2050, but only if installed wind and solar roughly doubles by 2030. Africa climbs to nearly 50% as traditional biomass gives way to modern supply, while several developing regions are likely to stay below 30% without stronger interconnection and concessional finance. In European markets, the pace of fossil fuel decline will hinge on three things: grid build-out, demand-side flexibility and end-use electrification. Operators, investors and policymakers will be judged against all three. (TF)
