From 1 April 2026, export rebates on photovoltaic products will be eliminated. For batteries, the reduction will be phased in: the rebate will decrease from nine to six percent for the rest of 2026, then drop to zero from 1 January 2027. Prices are already climbing, with both PV modules and batteries seeing notable increases, driven not only by the phase-out of rebates, but also by growing pressure from Beijing to restrict production. “China has stopped watching prices spiral,” Scheper notes. “They want fewer market players, higher margins, and tighter control over who produces, how much, and at what price.”
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As the Lunar New Year approaches on 17 February, the urgency is growing. Buyers are accelerating deliveries and locking in quantities and prices, aiming to secure supply before the rebates disappear and March becomes a period of renegotiation. European distributors, in particular, are advancing purchases through March to get ahead of anticipated volatility.
Changing export landscape
In the battery segment, the market is bracing for a five to ten percent price increase in the first half of the year. Scheper’s point is straightforward: margins were already slim, and this move removes one of the last tools exporters had. “It forces suppliers to rethink their international sales strategies,” he says. Some will look to shift parts of assembly outside China just to remain competitive. There is a political dimension here, too – reducing rebates may help to address dumping accusations and trade tensions. Whether or not it succeeds, the immediate reality is more straightforward: lithium prices are up, and buyers are advancing purchases while they can.
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Scheper does not expect the impact to subside anytime soon. “Anyone expecting price stability in the first two quarters is likely in for a surprise,” he says. “Strategic supply restrictions combined with the withdrawal of incentives are fundamentally changing the export landscape.” For buyers, the old strategy of waiting for the next price drop is looking much less dependable. What worked in an era of cheap, abundant supply may no longer apply. The rules of the game are changing – fast. (Gerard Scheper/hcn)
