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With module prices currently low, investing in solar is especially appealing – though conditions may not stay this favourable for long. The battery storage market is also heating up, particularly for large-scale systems. We spoke with Dutch market analyst Gerard Scheper about the key players, what’s driving the shift and what change to expect.
The summer of 2024 has not led to an increase in demand for solar panels. Due to the low prices, the financial problems continue, according to Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar. "Consumer interest and market are actually temporarily 'on pause', but a company cannot be on pause for a year. Fortunately, the C&I market and batteries still offer some hope."
Due to an ever-expanding supply, without increasing demand, a gigantic overcapacity in the solar energy sector has rapidly arisen in the past year. The rapidly dropped prices have subsequently caused financial problems throughout the supply chain. "There's no one taking advantage of this at all”, says Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar. To put a stop to the current situation, the Chinese government wants to take measures.
Really? Again? And less polite words to that effect have been the exasperated sentiments of climate activists to Azerbaijan’s unveiling as the host of COP29 – another fossil fuel economy coming after petro-powered UAE’s 2023 desert jamboree. It is easy to conclude there’s as much an emergency in seriousness as there is over climate realism, Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar says.
The fact that the sudden huge price drops have led to major problems is no longer news. But prices keep falling and the question is when the tipping point will come and will the price increase be as turbulent as the current decline, Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar says.
PV panel prices have been dropping sharply for a few months now it appears that prices can still drop further. In addition, consumer demand is also falling sharply, but they can hardly be tempted with discounts because wholesalers are stuck with expensively purchased stock. Wholesalers who (partially) serve the business market have more options, Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar, says.
Due to the continuously dropping prices of modules, much of the solar power sector is living exciting times. "We are again in a similar situation to how it was before covid," says Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar. "Only now the industry is made up of 50 to 60 percent new people, who have never experienced this before."
The lack of recovery of the Chinese economy is causing a decline in demand for raw materials and solar cells, wafers and panels. Where producers and manufacturers were previously able to make mutual agreements to support prices, demand has now fallen to such an extent that prices have completely fallen through the ice. "There really seems to be complete panic," says Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar.
The general expectation was that once China's lockdowns ended, China's economy would pick up and boost global economic demand. That turns out to be rather disappointing, the Chinese demand is only increasing slowly. This also applies to the demand from the Chinese solar energy sector, sees Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar, where prices have nevertheless risen considerably.
Due to artificial silicon price increase of the Chinese producers, Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar, sees the solar module price returning to the 'old normal' of about 0.25 euros per watt peak.
Transport costs, polysilicon and solar panel prices dropped sharply the last weeks. But it will not stay like this, Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar, says.
The falling transport costs have continued in the past month, mainly due to a spectacular drop in the container price. "That can save one and a half to two euro cents per watt peak, which is quite nice," notes Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar.
The downward trend in container prices has continued in the past period, so that prices are now back at the level of January 2021. A decrease of 63 percent in one year. If you commit large contracts for a longer period of time, you can end up even lower, says Gerard Scheper, CEO of European Solar: "Then you can set the prices at 3,000 to 3,500 dollars."
