Compared with 2025, the report finds that under the more ambitious Solar+ scenario, annual electricity system operating costs fall by €55 billion, or 49%, by 2030, driven by reduced fossil fuel use and imports. Under a business-as-usual scenario reflecting today's pace of solar deployment, operating costs still decline by €33 billion, or 29%, by 2030.
The analysis models two scenarios. A business-as-usual Base Case is compared with the Solar+ scenario, which represents higher ambition towards meeting the 2030 EU energy and climate targets. Both scenarios point to the role of solar, electrification and storage in delivering a more cost-effective energy system, with Solar+ underlining the potential for solar and storage to be deployed quickly and at low cost.
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Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe: "An electricity system driven by renewables is fundamentally more cost-effective than relying on the volatile pricing and burning of fossil fuels. Investment in renewables, storage and non-fossil flexibility pays off for years to come, while fossil fuel investments cost Europe its stability and independence."
In examining the impact of renewables on energy prices, the report models how often renewables would set the electricity price. Under Solar+, variable renewables set the price 19% of the time, against 14% in the Base Case, reducing reliance on gas and other thermal generation as price-setters.
Curb daily price spreads
When wind and solar, referred to as variable renewable energy sources (Variable RES), set the electricity price more often, prices are lower. On average, Solar+ would reduce EU day-ahead wholesale electricity prices by 14% in 2030 compared with 2025. The drop reaches 25% in markets such as Germany, where power prices are higher. Flexibility also softens the downsides of variability. The analysis notes that adequate flexibility deployment can curb daily price spreads, where electricity can be very cheap during abundant renewables hours and quite expensive during high demand hours.
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The report also identifies a sweet spot in which consumers benefit from lower average prices while the business case for solar is preserved. Under Solar+, negative price hours hold steady from 2025 to 2030, remaining under 500 hours per year and protecting investors in renewables. At the same time, wholesale day-ahead electricity prices fall by more than 10%, to the benefit of consumers.
Battery storage scales rapidly in both scenarios. Total operating EU battery storage capacity reaches 116 GW / 267 GWh by 2030 in the Base Case, and 171 GW / 598 GWh under Solar+. Batteries also lengthen in duration, with average storage duration growing to 2.3 hours (Base Case) and 3.5 hours (Solar+) by 2030, up from 1.9 hours in 2025.
Political recommendations
To unlock the Solar+ era and its benefits for Europe, SolarPower Europe calls on EU policymakers and Member States to:
· Adopt an EU flexibility strategy with a dedicated battery storage action plan. A flexibility-first approach must be embedded in grid planning, market design and regulation, ensuring battery storage and demand response are prioritised and properly rewarded. EU-level measures are needed to improve the investability of storage and enable rapid scale-up.
· Adopt an ambitious and coordinated EU electrification action plan. Electrification must accelerate across industry, transport and buildings by aligning price signals, infrastructure planning and permitting. Correcting distortions between electricity and fossil fuels is essential to make clean, electrified solutions the most cost-effective choice for consumers and industry.
The report, 'Solar+: An EU pathway to achieve renewable targets, price affordability, and energy security', was produced with the support of Rystad Energy and launched in Brussels during the annual SolarPower Summit. (hcn)
