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Harry Wolkenfelt: the hidden risks of BESS value stacking

Not long ago, a battery on a commercial site had one job to fulfill. Today, battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly designed to earn their keep in several ways at once. A single system may reduce peak demand, increase solar self-consumption, optimise electricity tariffs, provide network flexibility, take part in energy markets or, where designed for backup or islanded operation, support business continuity.

Combining several of these functions can significantly strengthen the business case. But every additional function also makes a business more dependent on the BESS performing as expected. That changes the risk profile. The battery’s own worth is therefore only part of the equation, alongside how much operational and financial value now depends on its availability.

Start with the function

Good BESS design starts with a clear understanding of what the system is expected to achieve. Battery capacity comes later. A battery intended primarily to reduce short demand peaks may need a very different configuration from a system designed to shift several hours of solar generation into the evening, manage grid constraints or take part in flexibility markets. Not every value stream can be delivered at full potential at the same time. Different services may compete for the same power, energy capacity and state-of-charge headroom. A realistic value-stacking strategy must therefore set operational priorities and model these constraints. Simply adding up the expected value of each service is not enough.

Insurability is built, not bought

Combining functions also makes correct system design more demanding, because every application places different requirements on power, energy capacity, response time, cycling behaviour and availability. MW and MWh describe different characteristics of the same system and cannot be considered in isolation. MW indicates how much power the system can deliver at a given moment, while MWh indicates how much energy it can store. How long a BESS can sustain a given output depends on the ratio between its usable energy capacity and the required discharge power. A BESS may have enough energy capacity but still be unable to deliver the required power, while a high-power system may lack the energy to sustain that output for long enough.

Real data tests the concept

The desired functionality then needs to be matched with the actual operating conditions of the site. Annual electricity consumption on its own says little about how a battery needs to operate. Two industrial or commercial sites may consume roughly the same amount of electricity over a year yet have completely different load profiles. One may experience short, sharp peaks, while the other has relatively stable consumption throughout the day. Solar production may coincide well with on-site demand at one location but create substantial surplus generation at another. Grid constraints, charging opportunities, tariff structures and production schedules can also differ significantly.

For this reason, BESS modelling should be based on actual time-series data, and at a resolution that is suited to the intended application and realistic operating conditions. Averages and generic assumptions fall short. The intended functionality, site data, grid limitations and commercial requirements need to be considered together, because they determine both the configuration of the system and the value it can realistically deliver. Poor assumptions at this stage can result in incorrect sizing, unrealistic savings expectations or a system that performs as designed technically but does not achieve the commercial outcome on which the investment was based. A technically well-performing BESS is not automatically a commercially successful one.

A good battery cannot rescue a weak business case

This distinction matters more as BESS business models grow more sophisticated. A battery may be well designed, correctly installed and fully operational, and the financial case may still turn out weaker than expected. Electricity prices may diverge from the original forecast. Tariff structures can change, expected peak demand may not occur, grid restrictions may limit the operating strategy or anticipated revenues from flexibility and energy markets may fail to materialise at the level assumed in the model.

The commercial assumptions therefore deserve the same level of scrutiny as the technical design. Expected operating hours, cycling behaviour, available grid capacity, tariff exposure and dependence on volatile market revenues all affect the outcome. Additional value streams may also increase cycling and energy throughput, which can accelerate degradation and affect performance warranties. What counts is the net value of each extra service, not its gross revenue potential.

Scrutiny also means asking what happens when one of the expected value streams shrinks or disappears altogether. If a business case only works if several optimistic assumptions hold for many years, the project may be more vulnerable than the headline return suggests. Insurance cannot correct that vulnerability. It can protect against defined insured events and their financial consequences, but it cannot make an unrealistic business model viable.

More value also means more dependency

Value stacking is attractive precisely because a single asset can create value in several ways. But the same characteristic can also concentrate dependency in that one asset. Consider a commercial site where the BESS is initially used only to reduce peak-demand charges. If the battery becomes unavailable, the main immediate consequence may be higher electricity costs.

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If the same BESS is later also used for solar optimisation, grid-import management, flexibility revenues and operational support, the consequences of downtime become broader. Electricity costs may rise, solar generation may be used less efficiently, expected network or market revenues may be lost and operational flexibility may decline. Where the battery is also required to remain within contracted grid limits or support critical business processes, the impact can extend into normal operations. At that point, the BESS is more than an energy asset. It has become part of the operating model of the business. That distinction matters because the financial exposure may then be considerably larger than the replacement value of the battery.

Equipment value does not show the full exposure

Traditional asset risk assessment often starts with physical damage. How much is the equipment worth, what would it cost to repair or replace it and how long would that process take? Those questions remain important, but they may not capture the full exposure of a modern BESS project. When business operations, energy costs, grid compliance or market revenues depend on battery availability, downtime may have consequences that extend well beyond physical damage to the equipment. A failure can affect both direct costs and the economic activities that the system was intended to support.

The more relevant question therefore becomes: what financial and operational value depends on this BESS continuing to perform? That perspective changes how availability, maintenance, service agreements, spare parts, monitoring and business continuity should be considered. A system can have excellent technical specifications but still carry a weak risk profile if substantial business value depends on uninterrupted performance while recovery arrangements are inadequate.

Availability becomes a business issue

Once a BESS becomes operationally important, availability is a business consideration as well as a technical performance indicator. That makes the operational phase particularly important. Remote diagnostics, preventive maintenance, battery-health monitoring, software support, alarm escalation and clear service-level agreements all help to identify problems early and restore performance quickly.

A bankable battery needs a digital exit strategy

The digital layer also plays an increasingly important role. A battery can remain physically healthy while communication problems, software failures or incorrect control logic prevent the system from delivering the required function. As BESS assets become more connected and software-driven, the distinction between a technical malfunction and an operational failure becomes less clear, because both can lead to the same commercial result: the battery is unable to perform when it is needed. Cybersecurity, software compatibility and remote connectivity therefore increasingly belong to the core risk profile. They are not secondary IT issues.

De-Risking the business case

De-risking does not mean attempting to eliminate every possible risk. It means identifying the factors that could prevent the project from delivering its intended outcome, understanding how those risks interact and taking measures to keep them demonstrably manageable throughout the lifecycle of the asset. For BESS, that involves connecting the technical design with the commercial logic behind the project. The assessment should consider what the battery is expected to do, which value streams depend on it, what data supports those expectations and what level of technical performance is required to deliver them.

It should also consider what happens when availability is lower than expected, which functions are genuinely critical to the business and what financial consequences may arise if the BESS cannot perform one or more of those functions. Addressing these questions early makes it possible to align technical design, contractual arrangements, maintenance strategy and risk transfer with the real dependency the project creates.

Insurability follows the risk

Insurance remains an important layer within that overall risk strategy. By the time a project reaches underwriting, however, many of the technical and commercial choices that shape its risk profile have already been made. An insurer can assess that risk, require additional mitigation and determine the terms on which it can be accepted, but insurance cannot undo fundamental weaknesses in design, sizing or commercial assumptions.

Risk management, not insurance, will decide the future of solar and BESS

For insurers, lenders and investors, the role of the BESS within the wider business matters more and more. Their assessment extends beyond the battery technology itself to the consequences of failure, the quality of system integration, maintenance and monitoring arrangements, contractual responsibilities and the ability of the business to continue operating during a prolonged outage. Where dependency is high, the quality of those arrangements becomes correspondingly more important. Insurability and the business case are therefore closely connected, because many of the same technical and operational dependencies influence both.

Value stacking changes what is at risk

The BESS market is becoming more sophisticated. Projects are increasingly justified by a combination of revenue streams, cost savings and operational functions, not by a single use case. That creates opportunity, but it also concentrates more value in the continued performance of one interconnected system. As a result, assessing a BESS only by looking at battery quality, capacity or replacement value provides an incomplete picture.

The more important question is how much operational and financial value now depends on the system and whether that dependency has been identified, understood and adequately managed. Value stacking can make a BESS more valuable. It can also make failure more consequential. (Harry Wolkenfelt/hcn)

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