Europe's pivot to LNG following Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove EU imports up by 84 percent between 2021 and 2025, when they reached a record high. The fragility of that dependence has since been underlined by damage to export facilities in Qatar, one of Europe's most important LNG suppliers. For Jaller-Makarewicz, lead analyst at energy finance think tank IEEFA, the structural answer is not a search for alternative suppliers but a faster rollout of wind, solar and residential heat pumps, cutting demand at source rather than scrambling to replace one import dependency with another.
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU Plan with the aim of ending the EU's dependence on Russian energy through reduced consumption, expanded renewables and diversified supply. Between 2021 and 2024, EU gas demand fell by approximately 78.5 billion cubic metres (bcm), a decline of around 20 percent, driven in significant part by renewables and heat pump deployment alongside demand reduction policies. The cuts were broad-based: households reduced gas consumption by 24 percent over the period, industry by 20 percent, commercial and public services by 19 percent, and electricity and heat generation by 18 percent.
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EU heat pump deployment grew rapidly over much of the past decade, primarily in residential and commercial buildings, with around 7.6 million units installed between 2022 and 2024. France led with roughly two million, followed by Italy with 1.5 million and Germany with nearly one million. On the power side, EU countries added 146 GW of solar capacity over the same period, led by Germany, Spain, Poland, Italy, France and the Netherlands, with utility-scale installations accounting for 39 percent of cumulative solar capacity, according to SolarPower Europe. A further 43 GW of wind capacity came online between 2022 and 2024, led by Germany, Finland, Sweden, France, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland.
New heat pumps, solar and wind could cut EU gas demand by a quarter by 2030
Clean energy investment can mitigate energy supply risks, whether from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz or the supply gap that will follow the EU's full ban on Russian gas imports in 2027. Drawing on Eurostat data on wind and solar production and the demand impact of new heat pumps, IEEFA concludes that clean energy has materially reduced the EU's LNG import dependency. The figures are striking: heat pump deployment and increased solar and wind generation together cut EU gas demand by 8.8 bcm in 2024, equivalent to roughly two-thirds of EU imports of Qatari LNG that year.
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Gas savings will continue to grow as the installed clean energy base expands. IEEFA estimates that meeting the EU's targets of at least four million heat pump installations, 75 GW of solar and 22 GW of wind annually over the next five years could cut gas demand by around a quarter by the end of 2030, excluding other demand-reduction measures. That saving would be equivalent to double the volume of LNG the EU could import from Qatar by 2030. Scaling up clean energy alongside grid investment will also support the EU's new 2040 electrification target, part of the broader push to reduce the bloc's dependence on imported oil and gas.
If Europe continues to reduce gas consumption, improve energy efficiency and expand renewables, LNG and pipeline gas imports will decrease and external energy crises will pose less of a threat to the continent's energy security. (Maria Jaller-Makarewicz/hcn)
