A report by consulting firm Kearney predicts that Poland’s transition to electric vehicles will lag behind Western Europe. However, rising technological maturity and declining vehicle prices are expected to drive faster adoption after 2030.
EV adoption trends
Accordingly, by 2030 only one in three new cars sold in Poland will be fully electric, compared with more than half across the EU. By 2035, nearly all new car sales in both Poland and the EU are expected to be electric, significantly reducing the share of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on the roads from 88 percent today to 53 percent.
Plug-in hybrids as a bridge
Moreover, the Kearney report states that plug-in hybrid powertrains will act as a transitional technology over the next five years, providing flexibility in regions with limited charging infrastructure while helping to lower emissions. Automakers continue to actively promote this technology, and consumer interest is steadily growing.
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Regulatory and market drivers
The planned EU ban on sales of light commercial vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035 is identified as a major driver for private transport electrification. Even with potential regulatory adjustments, Kearney expects EU markets to achieve full or near-full electrification of new light commercial vehicles within the next decade. Additionally, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to dominate new car sales across both Poland and the EU within ten years, further accelerating the shift toward electromobility.
Infrastructure and affordability
The report also forecasts that nearly 1 million BEVs will be on Polish roads by 2030, a significant increase from more than 120,000 today. However, the number of electric vehicles per charging point will exceed the EU-recommended ratio of 20, up from a current ratio of seven. Advances in battery technology are anticipated to lower vehicle prices, boost production, and drive demand for expanded charging infrastructure, which is critical for widespread adoption. Furthermore, recent price reductions have made some new electric cars, particularly in the C segment, cheaper than comparable internal combustion vehicles when subsidies are considered. Nevertheless, Kearney notes that used combustion vehicles remain a competitive option, especially for private buyers.
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Long-term outlook
For the long term, the Kearney report concludes that the high efficiency of electric vehicles positions them as the optimal solution for both economic and individual needs, ensuring their dominance in the market. (mg)
The full report on Poland’s automotive transformation is available at Kearney Poland.
