The study “Power System Stability” was commissioned by the Swedish research institute Energiforsk and analyses data from 2015–2024. “It is important that Sweden’s power system remains robust. This robustness has repeatedly been called into question in recent years. However, the report confirms that the Swedish power system performs very well in an international comparison, almost regardless of the measurement method,” said Markus Wråke, CEO of Energiforsk.
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Mikael Odenberger, Associate Professor of Energy Systems Analysis and Senior Analyst at Profu, also emphasised: “We find no clear signs that the grid has lost physical stability so far. However, the risk of power shortages has increased, unless we rely more on imports or shift electricity consumption away from peak hours.” Odenberger co-authored the report with Daniel Karlsson (DNV) and Thomas Unger (Profu), underscoring the study’s rigorous analysis.
Deviations and new technologies
The report notes that deviations causing more challenging operating conditions remain relatively rare. More frequently, generation exceeds expectations, such as during periods of strong wind. When these surpluses cannot be absorbed immediately, the risk of grid fluctuations rises. The authors add that companies are increasingly addressing these situations using advanced technologies such as battery storage.
Costs of stability measures
The state authority Svenska kraftnät, responsible for stability in the national transmission grid, has significantly increased its spending on stability services, from around SEK 1 billion (approx. €90 million) in 2020 to SEK 8 billion in 2023. Nevertheless, these ancillary services accounted for only a very small share of total system costs, and with the growing use of battery storage they are expected to become even more cost-efficient in the future.
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“Sweden has never had such good opportunities to keep the system stable, and according to our analysis, the costs per kilowatt-hour are likely to remain at roughly today’s level. The largest costs will continue to stem from electricity transmission and generation,” said Odenberger.
Looking ahead
According to calculations by Svenska kraftnät, the risk of power shortages has increased. At the same time, there are strong reasons to place more focus on flexibility services, Odenberger noted: “We will gradually obtain more data that could influence how the risk of power shortages should be assessed.” (Eva-Maria Diehl)
